The 2026 National Storm Conference

TESSA 2026 AGENDA

Ryann Jones, Emcee

Ryann is a meteorologist and member of the DFW NBC5 Weather Team. Born in Florida but raised in Justin, Texas for most of her life, Ryann has long called the DFW Metroplex home. She graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida. She is a former college volleyball player who still loves to play. When not tracking the weather or spiking a serve, Ryann likes to play pickleball and spend time with her family.

9:15 am - David Bonnette, National Weather Service, Science and Operations Officer, Ft. Worth.

“To Warn or Not to Warn: That is the Question”

This presentation revolves around a case-study of the October 24, 2025 thunderstorm event that moved across southern Tarrant County. It will include an environmental and radar review of the case, as well as provide an inside look into how and why each decision was made before, during, and after the event. It will also highlight the critical need of trained spotters relaying timely information to the National Weather Service and the value real-time reports have in the warning enterprise.

David is the Science and Operations Officer at the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, serving as the office’s technical and scientific lead. He bridges academic research with operational forecasting by overseeing staff training, integrating new meteorological technologies, and maintaining high scientific standards. David began his career as a Weather Forecaster in the U.S. Air Force, later joining the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City before transferring to Fort Worth. He is a graduate of Texas A&M University.

10:15 am - Rich Thompson, Chief of Forecast Operations at the Storm Prediction Center.

“Hazard Intensities in SPC Convective Outlooks and Mesoscale Discussions”

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) updated mesoscale discussions (MD) to include hazard intensity ranges in early 2025, and in early 2026 convective outlooks will be updated to include three intensity levels. Rich will detail SPC’s success with the MD changes, and will explain how and why they’re updating the convective outlooks.

Rich Thompson is a native Texan with BS and MS degrees in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma. He's been a part of NOAA since 1992. For most of his career, he was a lead forecaster at SPC, but has since transitioned to oversee forecast operations. Rich has chased storms in his spare time since 1985, often with frequent TESSA presenter Roger Edwards.

11:15 am - Scott Rae, Program Manager - Data and Innovation, NCTCOG

“The DFW Tornado Scenario Revisited”

 Scott Rae is a Program Manager for Data and Innovation at the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG).  He works with a wide variety of detailed data used for city and regional planning in the North Central Texas region. He is well-known for creating the "DFW Tornado Scenario,” which analyzes potential impacts of severe weather on the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.  

 Scott will focus on how various tornado damage paths around the country compare to the geography of the DFW region, and provide data on how our growth is impacting the level of risk. He will look at how the numbers are changing, and how newer data sets are providing greater insight into the impact we could see from a large tornado.  

11:35 am - Martin Lisius, Chairman, TESSA

“Guardians of the Universe”

Martin will present a portion of his new documentary film, “The Chasers of Tornado Alley: Touching the Sky” highlighting the chapter of the production titled, “Guardians of the Universe” which discusses the tornado risk that threatens Dallas – Ft. Worth, the largest metropolitan area in Tornado Alley.

Martin is a filmmaker and veteran storm chaser. He has produced video content for NOAA over the years and founded Tempest Tours Storm Chasing Expeditions in 2000. He co-founded TESSA with NWS forecaster and fellow UTA graduate Alan Moller in the early 1990’s as a way to further expand severe weather education for storm spotters, forecasters, and emergency managers. 

1:00 pm – Dr. Tim Logan, Associate Professor, Texas A&M University

 “Employing pseudo-dynamic metrics derived from lightning to diagnose tornadic supercell thunderstorm electrical behavior”

 Lightning activity in a thunderstorm can indicate the likelihood of severe weather, as flash rate is closely tied to updraft strength. In tornadic storms, stronger updrafts (mesocyclones) cause rapid changes in lightning source density and location near the area of tightest rotation. This study develops lightning-derived pseudo-dynamic metrics to illustrate the electrical organization of four Houston-area tornadoes—including cyclic, long-track, rain-wrapped, and cone cases—using high-resolution Houston Lightning Mapping Array data. A lightning-based rotational signature metric also identified where electrical rotation was strongest relative to neighborhoods that experienced greater damage. The goal is to develop this metric into an operational tool for the National Weather Service and emergency responders.

Tim is an Associate Professor at Texas A&M University whose research focuses on lightning, precipitation, flooding, aerosols, and how smoke impacts storm and cloud development along the Texas Gulf Coast. He teaches courses in Weather and Climate, Air Pollution Meteorology, and graduate-level Atmospheric Physics and Radiation. Tim directs the Houston Lightning Mapping Array and is a co-discoverer of two WMO-certified world-record lightning flashes measuring 768 km and 829 km. 

2:00 pm - Jason Runyen - Warning Coordination, National Weather Service Austin - San Antonio

Forecasting and Communicating High Impact/Low Probability Occurrence Weather Events – July 4-5, 2025 Hill Country Floods 

The catastrophic floods in the Texas Hill Country on the July 4th weekend of 2025 highlighted several challenges and misconceptions regarding how these events were forecast and communicated to emergency managers, the media, and the public. This presentation will examine the meteorology of the event, the current state of both the physical and social science related to communicating high-impact/low-probability occurrence weather events, and future efforts across the weather enterprise aimed at improving forecasting and communication strategies.

Jason Runyen is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) at the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office, where he is responsible for overseeing and maintaining the office's outreach, education, and partner/relationship building programs. He has been with the National Weather Service for 23 years, serving in the Austin/San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Lubbock Weather Forecast Offices. He also worked in the private weather sector in Houston for 4 years. Jason is a proud graduate of Texas A&M University.

3:00 pm - Roger Edwards, Professional Storm Chaser and former SPC Forecaster

 "Starve the Foamers: Hype and Reality in Forecasting"

 In the age of clickbait, rage bait, and online hype, weather forecasting is not immune. The threat of winter storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other hazards can drive fear—and for some, fear means clicks, engagement, and profit. Learning to recognize this can help us better distinguish credible, science-based forecasts from exaggerated, attention-grabbing extremes. Roger will share real-world examples and, drawing on his 35 years at the SPC and NHC, help you separate meaningful signals from noisy hype. This session will include both presentation and discussion, so come ready to participate.

Roger Edwards is a Dallas native with nearly 40 years of experience as a storm chaser, photographer, and professional meteorologist. He spent 35 years at the National Hurricane Center and Storm Prediction Center, retiring in 2024 as a longtime SPC lead forecaster. Roger has authored or co-authored over 100 scientific papers and has witnessed hundreds of tornadoes, including two long-tracked EF5 wedges. He now runs Supercell Scientific and Consulting, serves as a tour director for Tempest Tours Storm Chasing Expeditions.

4:00 pm - Cameron Nixon, Research Scientist at OU/CIWRO

“Storm Interactions and the Nudger Theory"

 Why do some storms produce tornadoes, while others don't? When watching radar, what precursors might signal that it's approaching "tornado time"? Cell mergers have long been thought to be influential in hazard production, such that many have tried to find proof that they assist the tornadogenesis process. Cameron’s recent findings suggest that it may not be so simple, and that we should be looking for cells that "nudge" as well as merge.

Cameron is a research scientist with the goal of better understanding how interactions between storms and their environments influence not only hazard potential, but how storms behave more generally. He is a proud graduate of Valparaiso University, Texas Tech University, and Central Michigan University, and works regularly with the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center. 

5:00 pm - Silent auction winners announced. If your name is called, please proceed to the TESSA Table to claim your item. Thank you for your support!

6:00 pm - TESSA Dinner Gathering at Spring Creek Barbecue, 3608 South Cooper Street, Arlington, TX 76015. Go through the line, grab some delicious BBQ (and those famous hot rolls), and head back to the banquet room reserved for TESSA folks.

TESSA T-shirts and decals can be purchased at the TESSA Table. And, don’t forget to place your bid on a Silent Auction item.

We would like to thank those who helped to make this event possible and keep it free and open to the public since 1994.

DFW NBC5 Weather, Media Sponsor

Tempest Tours Storm Chasing Expeditions, Primary Sponsor

USA Weather, Inc., Supporting Sponsor

UTA Office of Emergency Management, Venue Partner

Our Silent Auction Donors

Conference expenses include additional venue costs, audio-video rental, speaker honorariums, promotion and printing.

TESSA Staff Volunteers: Martin Lisius, Chairman. Shara Reams, Conference Coordinator.

Special thanks to Roger Edwards for his planning support, and to the North Central Texas Council of Governments for their assistance.

Donations to help pay for this or future events are accepted anytime at https://tessa.org/donate

TESSA Mission Statement

The Texas Severe Storms Association (TESSA) is a 501(c)(3) national non-profit organization founded to bring together both amateur and professional severe weather scientists in an attempt to better understand dangerous storms through the collection and diffusion of knowledge.

Texas Severe Storms Association   PO Box 122222   Arlington, Texas 76012   www.tessa.org